Conflict and Development: Publications
Natural Resources and Violent Conflict in Egypt
As part of the Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative, the Conflict and Development team of IPD coded time series data on the location of resource extraction and production facilities, and the monetary value of resources, in order to assess the correlation between natural resources and civil conflict. Thus far, the team has coded the location of all resources in Africa, along with numerous countries throughout the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America.
The team has prepared a series of country and regional-level research briefs based on their findings. In this series, the first report examines whether natural resources and industrial materials had an effect on Egypt's unrest during the Arab Spring. By using data from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and coded resource data from United States Geological Survey (USGS), the team produced visual maps and ran geographic regression analyses to assess the correlation between natural resources and civil conflict during the eve of the Egyptian Revolution and its consequent unrest. Check out the full report here.
The team has prepared a series of country and regional-level research briefs based on their findings. In this series, the first report examines whether natural resources and industrial materials had an effect on Egypt's unrest during the Arab Spring. By using data from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and coded resource data from United States Geological Survey (USGS), the team produced visual maps and ran geographic regression analyses to assess the correlation between natural resources and civil conflict during the eve of the Egyptian Revolution and its consequent unrest. Check out the full report here.
Natural Resources and Violent Conflict in Central Africa
The second brief on natural resources and violent conflict focuses on Central Africa - the Democratic Republic of Congo and its bordering states. As a state that is often used as a prototypical example of natural resources' ability to promote civil violence, this is a key case to examine.
Using data coded by the Conflict and Development Team of IPD, as part of the Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative, combined with conflict information from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the team produced maps and geographic regression analysis about the situation in Central Africa. We find that resource-related violence is highly related to border distance in the DRC. Borders provide escape routes for rebels to flee the reach of the central government and into friendly co-ethnic territory in other states. Check out the full report here.
Using data coded by the Conflict and Development Team of IPD, as part of the Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative, combined with conflict information from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the team produced maps and geographic regression analysis about the situation in Central Africa. We find that resource-related violence is highly related to border distance in the DRC. Borders provide escape routes for rebels to flee the reach of the central government and into friendly co-ethnic territory in other states. Check out the full report here.
Natural Resources and Violent Conflict in Algeria
The third brief on natural resources and violent conflict focuses on Algeria, a resource rich state that has seen its share of internal conflict. As a state that receives most of its revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons, Algeria is a prime case to examine. It allows us to see if prior government control of resources matters to the outbreak of resource-related violence.
Using data coded by the Conflict and Development Team of IPD, as part of the Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative, combined with conflict information from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the team produced maps and geographic regression analysis about the situation in Algeria. We find that violence is unrelated to, or even negatively correlated with, the location of important natural resources. As the base of the government's power, protection of these resources is paramount to the government's survival. Check out the full report here.
Using data coded by the Conflict and Development Team of IPD, as part of the Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative, combined with conflict information from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), the team produced maps and geographic regression analysis about the situation in Algeria. We find that violence is unrelated to, or even negatively correlated with, the location of important natural resources. As the base of the government's power, protection of these resources is paramount to the government's survival. Check out the full report here.
CCAPS Policy Brief
In a policy brief published by the CCAPS program, the team studied the relationship between contested areas and international aid flows. The team overlaid the map of control areas with the AidData Aid Locations during Civil Wars (South of the Sahara) dataset. The map of control areas was also combined with other geo-coded information such as resources and population to create a more nuanced view of the relationship between aid and conflict. Click here for a link to the policy brief.
Conflict and Development: Past Projects
I. Aid, Conflict, and Elections in Kenya
In 2007 and 2008, Kenyans and political observers watched in anguish as organized electoral violence swept through several regions of this most-often-peaceful African nation. As the subsequent 2013 elections drew near, many feared repeated violence, but the contest came and went with few reports of attacks.
So what changed? Researchers from IPD’s Conflict and Development task team, inspired by the Kenyan people’s dedication to a peaceful vote, undertook a preliminary geographic analysis of foreign aid and conflict data from the years leading up to, during, and after, the violent election of 2007. We sought answers to two burning questions: how do donors react to political violence, and how does aid affect the recurrence of violence? While we must always be aware that mapping alone cannot fully answer our questions, it can help us identify starting points, and in the case of Kenya, we believe that it does just that. Our initial analyses revealed a significant shift in the value and geographic concentration of aid projects in the first major series of project agreements following the Kenyan electoral violence. While aid decreases in overall value across the country, the areas where violence was most prevalent receive significantly less aid. The eastern coast of the country, however, where violence was minimal, seems to have experienced an increase in the number of aid projects agreed.
Our preliminary geographic analysis of foreign aid and conflict data for Kenya revealed a series of notable patterns in both conflict and the total amount of aid pledged by the bank. We compared, quantitatively and geographically, the total value of aid pledged by the bank during two major periods of investment: 2005, before the violence, and 2010, after. We then mapped the locations of aid projects for the same years. Additionally, we mapped the locations of three types of political events during the years 2007 and 2008: social conflict, which includes riots and protests and can be violent or non-violent; communal (non-state) violence, such as that between two tribes; and violence against unarmed civilians, whether by a state or non-state actor. We found that these three types of violence all rose dramatically in 2007 and 2008.
An interactive map of aid locations and incidents of armed conflict in Kenya can be explored by clicking here.
So what changed? Researchers from IPD’s Conflict and Development task team, inspired by the Kenyan people’s dedication to a peaceful vote, undertook a preliminary geographic analysis of foreign aid and conflict data from the years leading up to, during, and after, the violent election of 2007. We sought answers to two burning questions: how do donors react to political violence, and how does aid affect the recurrence of violence? While we must always be aware that mapping alone cannot fully answer our questions, it can help us identify starting points, and in the case of Kenya, we believe that it does just that. Our initial analyses revealed a significant shift in the value and geographic concentration of aid projects in the first major series of project agreements following the Kenyan electoral violence. While aid decreases in overall value across the country, the areas where violence was most prevalent receive significantly less aid. The eastern coast of the country, however, where violence was minimal, seems to have experienced an increase in the number of aid projects agreed.
Our preliminary geographic analysis of foreign aid and conflict data for Kenya revealed a series of notable patterns in both conflict and the total amount of aid pledged by the bank. We compared, quantitatively and geographically, the total value of aid pledged by the bank during two major periods of investment: 2005, before the violence, and 2010, after. We then mapped the locations of aid projects for the same years. Additionally, we mapped the locations of three types of political events during the years 2007 and 2008: social conflict, which includes riots and protests and can be violent or non-violent; communal (non-state) violence, such as that between two tribes; and violence against unarmed civilians, whether by a state or non-state actor. We found that these three types of violence all rose dramatically in 2007 and 2008.
An interactive map of aid locations and incidents of armed conflict in Kenya can be explored by clicking here.
II. Aiding Peace Project
The Conflict and Development team gathered data on aid flows to post-conflict countries as part of a broader research project on how donors respond to fluctuations in the peace processes in countries experiencing civil war. The team gathered data on aid flows for the 5 years proceeding the signing of major peace agreements, in order to understand how aid flow affect the course of peace agreement implementation. The team also gathered data on China’s aid flows to the countries experiencing civil war, in addition to the major bilateral and multilateral donors. This work culminated in a grant application to the Swiss Network for International Studies with a team of researchers from other universities.
III. Battle Coding
Since January, the Conflict & Development team has worked with Daniel Strandow from the Uppsala University and developed a battle events dataset. The dataset, based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s Georeferenced Event Dataset for sub-Saharan Africa (UCDP-GED), includes information on areas of control for warring groups as well as information on which group initiated a battle event. To code this information, our team analyzed the narratives of conflict events from UCDP-GED to determine which warring party initiated an attack and which party controlled the location of engagement after combat ended. Until April, our team has finished coding nearly 400 “important” events, whose casualties are above the average of all events from the original UCDP-GED.
The resulting research brief, published in collaboration with the LBJ School's CCAPS program, can be viewed by clicking here.
The resulting research brief, published in collaboration with the LBJ School's CCAPS program, can be viewed by clicking here.